60% likely to miss · raimo
target LAG-3 · moa checkpoint-inhibition · failure mode target-redundant
- premise fianlimab adds LAG-3 blockade to a PD-1 backbone (cemiplimab) vs pembrolizumab in adjuvant resected melanoma
- premise counter-evidence: RELATIVITY-047 showed LAG-3 (relatlimab) DID add PFS benefit on a PD-1 backbone in 1L melanoma, so LAG-3 is not cleanly redundant in this substrate resolved_trial:NCT03470922
- inference redundancy is plausible but the melanoma precedent argues against a confident fail; the call is near coin-flip with a slight lean to not-met given the high adjuvant RFS bar
- prediction RFS superiority over pembrolizumab is uncertain (p_met ~0.40)
Evidence: resolved_trial:NCT03470922